Martin Lewis grills Nicola Sturgeon over independence bid
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A new poll by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman revealed 54 percent of those polled saw this new deal as favouring a second referendum. It is an opinion most commonly seen in those who voted for the SNP in May, at 68 percent, yet is also one held by a majority of Labour voters in the previous election at 58 percent.
Having to satisfy herself with a power-share in Holyrood since the May elections in Scotland, this is good news for Nicola Sturgeon.
Nearly half of poll respondents thought that this deal strengthens her position, rather than the quarter of people who saw it as debilitating for Scotland’s First Minister.
Some 53 percent also believe that the SNP/ Green deal solidifies the Scottish Green Party’s political presence, including 90 percent of Green list voters.
And 50 percent of poll respondents also said they did not think there should be another independence referendum, including a quarter of those who voted Yes in 2014.
The overall proportion of those who did think there should be a second independence referendum came just under the above percentage, at 44 percent.
This does not meet the threshold outlined by UK Secretary of State for Scotland, Alister Jack, who recently stated that a second independence referendum could happen if 60 percent of Scots regularly favoured another vote.
If Scotland were to head to the ballots tomorrow, 45 percent would vote Yes, and 48 percent No.
Alongside a 7 percent of undecided voters, this highlights a small increase in Yes support since the May elections in Scotland.
Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes, Chris Hopkins, said that he was unsurprised that support for this deal was found primarily in those who voted for the SNP and Scottish Green Party.
“Although not a formal coalition, it’ll be interesting to see how the Green’s electoral fortunes play out over the course of the deal.”
Voters tend not to reward the junior partner of a political coalition, he continued, “but with those voting Green on the list having a huge overlap with those voting SNP in their constituency, perhaps it will have little impact.”
“Of course, those two parties share independence as a long-term goal, and following something of a climbdown from the UK government, indicating that there may be a second referendum if around 60 percent of Scots desire one, this poll shows half think there shouldn’t be another referendum.”
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This includes 16 percent of those who voted for the SNP in the most recent election, noted Mr Hopkins.
The power-share between the SNP and the Greens is the first time that the Greens reach government anywhere in the UK.
A “key strand” of this co-operation, according to Sturgeon, is that the coalition of SNP and Green MSPs can deliver a second independence referendum.
Speaking in Holyrood at the end of August, the SNP leader called the SNP/Green Deal “groundbreaking,” and one which pushed the referendum agenda to an “undeniable” prominence.
The presence of the Greens in the Scottish government, according to Sturgeon, also held the key to “bold and decisive” action to tackle climate change.
This “strong environmental theme” was a fundamental characteristic of the SNP/Green deal alongside the commitment to a second independence referendum, Ms Sturgeon detailed.
The shared commitment to renewed independence effort is “even more important” in the post-pandemic era, she stated.
Dependent on the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, Scotland’s First Minister affirmed that a new vote should be a reality by the end of 2024.
Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,016 Scottish adults aged 16+ online from 3-9 September 2021. Data were weighted by age, sex, region, the results of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections and the results of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Voting intentions were also weighted by likelihood to vote.
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