The areas that could skewer Sturgeons IndyRef hopes – mapped

Scotland: Douglas Ross slams Indyref2 as 'potentially illegal'

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IndyRef2 is on the horizon, Nicola Sturgeon hopes, as the SNP leader and Scottish first minister announced plans to conduct it on October 19, 2023. The plan must first receive assent from the Supreme Court and does not have backing from Westminster, but Ms Sturgeon likely hopes an appetite for separation will allow her party to realise its long-pursued goal. A clutch of Scottish areas could easily shatter her hopes and deliver a second “no” outcome fewer than 10 years after the last referendum failed to produce independence.

Which areas could vote no in a second Scottish independence referendum?

Ms Sturgeon may struggle to convince some communities to vote for independence in another vote next year, according to results from the previous poll.

The 2014 referendum turned out a firm “no” result from 55 percent of voters, while 45 percent voted to separate from the UK.

Some areas were comparatively close in their votes, with 49.92 percent of voters in Inverclyde voting yes, for example, while others had a supermajority of 60 percent or more who may prove troublesome for the SNP to sway.

More than 60 percent of people voted against independence in the following areas:

Orkney Islands: 67.20 percent

Scottish Borders: 66.56 percent

Dumfries & Galloway: 65.67 percent

Shetland Islands: 63.71 percent

East Renfrewshire: 63.19 percent

East Lothian: 61.72 percent

East Dunbartonshire: 61.20 percent

Edinburgh: 61.10 percent

Aberdeenshire: 60.36 percent

Perth & Kinross: 60.19 percent

Those 10 constituencies could dislodge the SNP’s goals if attitudes have not shifted much since 2014.

And the latest polling suggests the same attitudes to independence remain, split precisely as they were eight years ago.

Political attitudes tracking from YouGov found that 55 percent of people would vote no.

Again, 45 percent of people would choose the yes vote, dashing Ms Sturgeon’s hopes.

YouGov’s data shows the proportion of people who would prefer to remain in the UK has risen to its highest since 2019.

A similar poll of polls from Politico found a slimmer majority in favour of the no vote.

While their data is from a little earlier this year – May 29 – Politico found 47 percent of people would prefer Scotland not gain independence.

Fewer people would also vote yes, with the movement down one point to 44 percent.

YouGov also found most Scots would prefer the referendum not to happen.

A separate poll conducted between May 18 and 23 found only 28 percent of people would want a referendum in 2023.

Most people – 59 percent – said they did not want to vote on independence next year.

People seemed more willing to participate in a referendum further down the line, with 42 percent happy for one “within the next five years” and 41 percent not.

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