Joe Biden on brink in key swing state as Democrats warned ‘everyone here will vote Trump’

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According to polling, Mr Biden remains the frontrunner in the US presidential election, with the Democrats appearing to be in a commanding position. The Guardian’s poll tracker shows that President Trump leads in just two of the eight swing states. It also shows President Trump has a small advantage in Iowa and Ohio. Meanwhile, Mr Biden leads by larger margins in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

However, the latter has given the Democrats cause for concern this week.

Reuters/IPSOS polls suggest President Trump is cutting into his opponent’s lead in Pennsylvania.

Mr Biden’s advantage has dropped from seven points to just four, according to the poll.

The worrying statistics for the Democrats coincide with warnings from the state that President Trump will pull off a surprise comeback, just like he did in 2016.

Channel 4 News visited Pennsylvania to speak to voters about the election, and found many who had little confidence in the Democrats.

Ed Harry, a trade union leader from the state who knew Mr Biden personally, turned his back on the Democrats in 2016.

Mr Harry said many “hated Trump” in 2016 and “still hate Trump”.

However, he warned “they are still going to vote for him, because the Democratic Party we grew up being part of no longer exists, it’s gone.”

A local police chief also warned that most police officers would vote for the Republicans after protestors and the police in the US clashed following the murder fo George Floyd.

He said: “Every officer I have spoken to in this area is supporting Donald Trump.”

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However, campaigners for Mr Biden responded by saying that the Democrats’ message is cutting through, but were concerned about President Trump’s “attack ads”.

Another campaigner said: “Chaos is Donald Trump’s friend, I’m not sure why people are conned into thinking President Trump is making America safer. He isn’t.”

A recent study also makes for grim reading for Mr Biden and the Democrats.

Published in August, it found that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for President in the 2020 election.

This could raise doubts over poor polling performances for President Trump.

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Some 11.7 percent of Republicans and 10.5 percent of independents said they would not give their true opinion.

This was the case for just 5.4 percent of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch.

“This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls.”

The study added that, typically, “those who admit changing their minds more or less wash out, breaking about evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate”.

Among the reasons they gave was that “it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to the study’s chief research officer.

Political party preference was the only characteristic that correlated consistently with reluctance to share presidential preference, they added.

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